The term “failed state” usually refers to a country whose state apparatus is not capable of effectively controlling and policing its territory, and is unable to provide basic social and public services to its citizens. These types of states are generally characterized by rampant corruption and socioeconomic plights. However, they also become generators of internal conflicts, organized crime, terrorism, refugees, and arms proliferation, among others, thereby impacting the well-being of their neighbors. Failed states are usually associated with places like Afghanistan and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as with the conflict-ridden countries of the Middle East and North Africa, such as Yemen and Libya. The year 2019, however, has the potential of adding another country to that list. This country, however, lies in South America, as thanks to political mismanagement, Venezuela has started moving in the direction of being a failed state. This lies in great contrast to its days as one of the wealthiest countries in South America.
Jack Ma, the co-founder and chairman of Alibaba Group, the Chinese conglomerate with a presence in diverse sectors, including internet, e-commerce, and retail, is one of the symbols of Chinese economic success. Indeed, Ma was named China’s richest man by Forbes magazine and also numbers 20th on the list of the world’s richest people. Alibaba Group is ranked number 300 on the global ranking of Fortune 500. However, on 26 November 2018, Jack Ma, was revealed to be a member of the Chinese Communist Party. This information was brought to light by a newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, which identified Ma as being among a group of people deserving of reforming and opening China.
The Islamic State is no longer characterized in the media and among security policy specialists as the greatest security threat emanating from the Middle East. In 2017, the Islamic State suffered some of its worst defeats. First, Iraqi security forces took over its biggest stronghold in the Iraqi city of Mosul. Soon after, it lost its capital, the city of Raqqa in Syria, under the offensive of US-backed forces. Since September 2018, one of the group’s last strongholds in the Syrian city of Hajin has been under attack by a US-backed coalition. However, while it may appear that we are seeing the end of the Islamic State, this terror group will likely return, as those who diagnose its demise neglect its history of adapting. Moreover, social forces in the region provide a fertile ground for its return.
As of 2017, the global financial system has become exposed to stricter financial regulations through the European Union’s “4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive,” the Canadian Financial Action Task Force (FATF), and the U.S.’s finCEN and its “Customer Due Diligence (CDD) Requirements for Financial Institutions” rule. These were brought forward after a series of offshore document leaks over the past two years, it is apparent that close to 10 percent of the global GDP is actually “hidden” in offshore jurisdictions and tax havens.
Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s four-year-long rule of Egypt has been marked by a campaign of repression that has now reached his own government. Following the military coup in 2013, Sisi arrested or exiled Islamists, youth activists, leftists, liberals, authors, and even comedians. Earlier in 2018, however, Sisi turned his attention to regime loyalists in preparation for the presidential elections.
Traditionally, the relationship between Iran and Pakistan has been formal and friendly, though with differences on major strategic issues. The appointment of the new Pakistani Prime Minister Imram Khan, former cricket player and social conservative, led many to believe that Pakistan will form a closer relationship with Iran. This notion became even stronger when Iranian President Hassan Rowhani telephoned Khan to congratulate him on his election, while Khan accepted the invitation to visit Iran at some point. Wider regional developments are forcing the two sides to reinforce their ties, although they are far from any high-profile partnership.
Europol’s European Cybercrime Center hosted a conference in June 2018 discussing virtual currencies and how to foster the legitimate use of this monetary system that is frequently abused by hackers, international drug dealers, and organized crime movers. Since then, there has been a big push to monitor cryptocurrencies. But what is the realm of possible? While there are currently no cryptocurrencies that are fully untraceable, the technology is advancing rapidly. As such, it is crucial for intelligence agencies to stay ahead of innovation in order to keep their edge over rogue actors using cryptocurrencies.
In this day and age, data has become the most cherished commodity in the world. Massive amounts of personal data are constantly being produced and managed by a growing group of operators across nations, often without any control on the part of individuals. While conventional wisdom has been that data is acquired and owned by companies, the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has set to bring that control back to the individuals. Considering this complete regulatory shift, the new order of data management will have the biggest impact on information technologies, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, all of which are components of operations in the financial industry.
In May 2018, the European Union (EU) launched its newest data protection legislation, known as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Next to it representing the largest overhaul of the world’s privacy rules in the last 20 years, the regulation is Europe’s attempt to extend its influence and regulatory might globally. Companies were presented a choice – comply with the EU’s standards or face being shut out of a market of 500 million consumers in one of the richest regions of the world. Today, six months after the rollout of the GDPR, it is time to ask whether the effects of the regulation are in line with the EU’s goals and what changes it has brought around the world.
Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have streamlined the compliance process utilizing algorithms designed to identify general risk categories. While these advancements have undoubtedly closed the intelligence gap to some extent, technology still cannot be completely relied upon to substitute human intelligence and nuanced analysis.
On 19 May 2017, incumbent Iranian president Hassan Rouhani won reelection by an overwhelming majority over hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, possibly indicating a significant lean towards genuine reform in the country. Although President Rouhani’s victory is encouraging with respect to Western relations, this should not be construed as a clear indication of U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. Despite the Iranian population’s apparent lean toward reform, as evidenced by recent election results, the intentions of the country’s most influential political figure, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remain unknown. Khamenei is fully aware that opening Iran to the U.S. and the West can potentially call into question the future of the theocratic government and erode the authority of hardliners. Furthermore, considering that Khamenei is 78 years old, a major concern lies in who will replace him and what the implications of this replacement will be for the country’s domestic and foreign policy.
Russia and Turkey are restoring their ties following months of crisis over the downing of a Russian aircraft by Turkey over Syria in November 2015. The relations between these two countries subsequently deteriorated, and Moscow imposed a number of sanctions on Turkey, suspending the visa-free travel regime for Turkish citizens, restricting the import of certain Turkish products, and banning charter flights. In June 2016, Turkish President Erdogan apologized and expressed regret for the downing of the Russian bomber in a letter addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This has initiated a Russian-Turkish rapprochement, leading to Erdogan and Putin meeting in August 2016 in Saint Petersburg.
The Iranian science & technology field, especially as it pertains to research and development (R&D), has been thriving even in the face of sanctions. Now, with the lifting of sanctions, we can expect increased foreign interest and injections of capital that will further help support and grow this sector.
Atypically, the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the West have been a major factor in the growth of Iran’s R&D sector. The UNESCO report “Towards 2030,” published in 2015, states that “[t]he sanctions…have accelerated the shift from a resource-based economy to a knowledge economy by challenging policymakers to look beyond extractive industries to the country’s human capital for wealth creation… between 2006 and 2011 the number of firms declaring R&D activities more than doubled.”
From Viber, through ReWalk (a robotic exoskeleton that threatens to make wheelchairs obsolete), to Zuta Labs (a pocket-sized printer), Israeli start-ups are changing the world as we know it. With a population of only 8.5 million people, it is astonishing that 4 percent of all venture capital (VC) deals made outside the US since 2012 have taken place in Israel, which rightfully wears its “Start-up Nation” title. Similarities between Silicon Valley and its Israeli tech-centric coastal counterpart have led to the latter being labeled “Silicon Wadi” (with “wadi” being the Arabic for “valley”). There are multiple reasons behind the surprising success of Israel’s start-ups, including government incentives and cultural factors. These factors have led to an influx of creative ideas and products coming out of Israel, helping establish it as VC-friendly and worthy of attention from foreign investors.
The portmanteau “Brexit” has been one of the most overused terms in the last few months, referring to the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. As 23 June, the date of the referendum to determine this issue, draws closer, it has become even more difficult to ignore the implications of this event. It will affect not only the UK, but all of Europe, both economically and politically. While public opinion regarding this topic vacillates, the short- and long-term consequences of an affirmative vote can be discerned with certainty.
The former East African Federation (EAF) was founded as a means of promoting inter-territorial cooperation between countries in this region, including Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. This first incarnation collapsed during the 1970s. However, the idea has not died. The premise for the future of a considerably enlarged version of the EAF is in the same spirit of much larger supranational organizations, such as the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Over the next few decades, this quasi-federation has the goal of becoming a more important player in world politics and the global economy. It seeks to rid the region of its stigmatic colonial history by creating a regional trading bloc that will be competitive in the global economy.
“The show must go on” could very well be the maxim of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Just last week, Donald Trump announced his “America First” foreign policy program and managed to further worry Americans about the future of American foreign policy. Yet traditionally, when it comes to U.S. presidential elections, neither the candidates nor their electorate have paid much notice to foreign policy issues. Indeed, foreign policy issues have historically had only a minor effect on polls, which further discourages candidates from delving into such topics. Notwithstanding, we should remember that, while foreign policy cannot decide a winner, it can certainly decide a loser.
China, a once thriving manufacturing powerhouse, is struggling to keep this title. China entered 2016 encumbered with a weakening economic outlook that has cast a shadow on its struggling industrial sector, with growth numbers at 7%, the lowest since 1990. The challenges faced by the Chinese industrial sector have been, in part, attributed to a culmination of decelerating technological progress and inadequately equipped factories. Conversely, China’s decline as a manufacturing frontrunner has been further exacerbated by foreign market entrance barriers created by China’s strict data surveillance regulations and data theft concerns that have hindered foreign investments, which are limiting the potential of China's industrial rate of growth. China has continually implemented strict regulations for foreign companies, as these entities have been frequently subjected to invasive audits that have made them vulnerable to economic cyber espionage. Yet, it is becoming evident that China’s protectionist policies are not only creating barriers for foreign companies but are increasingly showing to be self-destructive to its own economy.
The European migrant crisis is the most severe crisis of its kind in Europe since World War II. When discussing this crisis, the blame is often placed on the civil war in Syria, with the culprit being Assad or ISIS—or both. However, such claims are shortsighted and neglect the fact that the entire Middle East is in a state of geopolitical turmoil. The instability in Iraq and Syria are just more visible examples of this instability. Contrary to popular sentiment, we have not yet reached the pinnacle of refugee flows from the Middle East to Europe. On the contrary, given the confluence of geopolitical, socioeconomic, religious, and environmental factors, the exodus of refugees will become unimaginably worse in the long-term.
The significant potential for Foreign Direct Investment (“FDI”) in Serbia’s Free Zones, coupled with Serbia existing free trade agreements with Russia, offer an unmatched opportunity for companies targeting the sanctioned Russian market and vice versa. However, these opportunities are tempered by the context of the current political climate, making it essential for investors to identify and maintain relationships with key decision makers in the country in order to ensure a smooth investment process. It is necessary to understand the cultural nuances to further help investors navigate the bureaucratic maze successfully, ensuring that risks of any potential red flags are minimized.